Carney opponents have an uphill climb

When he announced his run for Congress in September 2005, few even knew who Chris Carney was.

Upset that U.S. Rep. Don Sherwood and a House Republican majority aimed to intervene in the end-of-life Terry Schiavo case in Florida, Carney decided Sherwood would not get his usual free ride to re-election.

By then, news of Sherwood's marital infidelity was also publicly percolating through the electorate.

Capitalizing on that and a wave of dissatisfaction with the country's direction under President Bush, Carney won in 2006. He enjoyed another anti-Bush wave last year, surprising many with an easy re-election win in a congressional district with almost five Republicans for every four Democrats.

Now, a group of largely anonymous Republicans and one better-known past contender are measuring the potential that a backlash against Democrats who supported President Obama's policies could knock off Carney.

"This is the first time (in a while) that this race is going to be about the Democrats," said Luke Bernstein, executive director of the state Republican Party. "Chris Carney has never had a race about Chris Carney."

No recent independent polls exist of voters in Carney's district, but a recent state poll by Franklin & Marshall College showed six in 10 Pennsylvanians thinking the state is on the wrong track.

"I think it (a backlash) is coming but it's going to be based much more on economic malaise and especially the unemployment rate," said David Sosar, a professor of political science at King's College. "I don't see the unemployment rate going down substantially."

The emergence of potential challengers to Carney is a largely recent development and a testament to the state Republican Party's aggressiveness in recruiting candidates for congressional elections statewide in case the backlash pans out. Their chief recruiter: Jerry Morgan, the former regional director for Sherwood.

Morgan declined to comment, but party officials like their chances against Carney better than the last two times out.

"I think the right candidate can defeat him," said Troy-Canton area attorney Matthew Brann, former Bradford County Republican Committee chairman and current state party official.

At least six people are considering seeking the Republican nomination for the seat, which stretches across 14 Northeast and Central Pennsylvania counties. They are:

- Malcolm Derk, of Freeburg, a Snyder County commissioner.

- Dan Meuser, of Harveys Lake, the former president of Pride Mobilty Products, who ran unsuccessfully for the nomination last year.

- Leonard Modzelesky, of South Abington Twp., former operations manager at WNEP-TV.

- Dan Naylor, of Benton Twp., a Lackawanna Trail school director and unsuccessful candidate for state representative in 2002.

- Les Sheridan, of Towanda in Bradford County, a retired educator.

- Steven Solieri, of Salem Twp. in Wayne County, an accounting professor at Queens College in New York City.

The best-known is Meuser, who spent almost $2.5 million only to lose the party nomination last year to businessman Chris Hackett, later clobbered by Carney.

"I have been thinking about it and strongly assessing the situation," Meuser said.

He, Solieri and Derk all cited two votes by Carney that have them wondering how well he represents the district.

The first was the congressman's vote for Obama's $787 million stimulus package, the second for the House version of health care reform.

"That really got me going more than anything," Solieri said of the Nov. 7 health care vote. "That and the stimulus stuff. An absolute, pure waste."

Only one in eight state voters believe they have personally benefitted from the stimulus package, according to the Franklin & Marshall poll, which might benefit Republicans.

The signs of potential voter dissatisfaction with Carney's health care vote was visible Monday at a town hall meeting in Montrose where some voters accused him of advancing socialism and favoring health care rationing.

But voters at a town hall meeting a year before the election is far from solid proof of Carney's vulnerability.

Unlike his predecessor, Carney has had no personal scandals. He has a proven ability to raise money, a record of winning in a tough district for Democrats, the publicity that accompanies an incumbent, constituent service no one complains loudly about and breeds name recognition and a reputation among many voters as a conservative Democrat.

He held out the possibility of voting against the final health-care package if its anti-abortion language is not strong enough.

"At the moment, I don't think the Obama backlash is strong enough," said Jeff Brauer, a Keystone College political science professor. "At the moment, I think Carney is safe. All politics is local and Carney does a good job keeping it at a local level."

At the moment, most of the prospective Republican candidates are unknown across the district and have yet to show an ability to raise the money necessary to mount a strong campaign. Carney had almost $400,000 in cash on hand as of Sept. 30. He raised and spent $2.3 million last year.

The exception is Meuser, who spent a small fortune to lose, but certainly showed fundraising prowess. His presence in the race would alter the terrain, Brauer said.

"I still think he has a lot of political capital out there," he said.

Carney, as he did two years ago, left the commentary on the race to a spokesman.

"Congressman Carney is focused on addressing the needs of our hard-working families during these trying economic times," press secretary Josh Drobnyk said. "He is proud of his record as an independent-minded lawmaker and looks forward to a thoughtful debate about pressing issues facing this country."

Contact the writer: bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com

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