Theodore J. Rieth: Twin Tiers Perspective: Another look at global warming
From roughly 1978 to 2002, there WAS a notable temperature increase of about 0.45C (0.8 degree F). The hypothesis is that this was largely caused by man-made greenhouse gas generation.
Several observations from the graph:
1. From 2002 to the present, the graph is essentially flat. So, despite ever increasing greenhouse gas generation, much from developing countries, global temperatures seem to no longer be increasing. But, they will note, this is too short a time period to draw a conclusion like that. But there, in fact, has been no further increase over 12 years.
2. So, let's consider a time period longer than the 24 years that form the basis for their theory. Look at the 1938 - 1978 time period and back-test the man-made warming hypothesis. This was a 4 decade period of tremendous world-wide industrial output to fight a World War and recover from it. Additionally, many nations improved their infrastructure to support demands of their populations. The increases in greenhouse gases must have been quite significant over those 40 years (global CO2 emissions from just fossil fuels up 300 percent - http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html), especially considering that environmental controls were almost non-existent for most of that time. The effect on global temperatures...ZERO.
When a scientific theory or hypotheses shows weakness, that's when science should consider changing it to better fit what is known, like the 52 years of data noted above. But the problem we have today is the politicization of science. Frankly, when politics is added to just about anything, one only hears half the story. And the folks who control 2/3 of the government, aided by much of the media, are happy to ignore all of the troublesome data while trashing anyone who disagrees with them. That's not how science should work...but that's today's situation. Sad.
I don't suggest we ignore greenhouse gases, but let's put the emphasis for change where it belongs - with those countries currently responsible for much of the increase. China (26 percent) and India/Russia (12 percent) are major CO2 contributors with minimal environmental controls (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) and money to improve the situation. The US has reduced energy-created CO2 by 7.5 percent from 2000-2009 while China is up 170 percent and India 60 percent over the same time period. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbdFF1QW00ckYzOG0yWkZqcUhnNDVlSWc&hl=en#gid=1)
Let's leave the politics aside and deal with the facts for a change. The future of this planet would appreciate it.
Towanda resident Theodore J. Rieth is an engineer with questions on climate change.